Prediction Calculator
This calculator will help you predict what goal you should set for yourself in an upcoming race. It is only a guideline since how well you do in a race is highly dependent on how you feel that day (both physically and mentally), how well trained you are for the event, and the weather conditions among other factors. Still it is helpful to know what kind of goal you should set so you don't go out too fast or too slow especially in an event that is new to you. The idea behind the calculator is that your pace per mile in a longer event is going to be slower than your pace per mile in a short event, but how much slower it should be is based how much slower you run than world record times in shorter events. According to Bob and Shelly-lynn Florence Glover in their, ©1999 book: The Competitive Runner's Handbook on page 284, "...runners tend to perform at a constant percentage of the world record at all distances." Therefore, this program is based on a mathematical model of world record times. The data for the world record times was found at USA Track & Field website. The more information you provide on recent best times, the better the program will work, but don't make a mistake of going back too far in your running history just to provide more times. You can use the program with only one recent time and you can always come back and run the program again when you have more times to record. |
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